If you think that I’m tooting my own horn you’re right but this post is about much more than me.
So, please bear with me for a moment.
In one of my very first posts on this blog I predicted that Obavez would strike a bad deal with Iran.That was almost two years ago in September 2013. Hell, that was even before anyone knew that the US was engaged in secret negotiations with Iran. These negotations resulted in the interim agreement in November 2013.
This is what I wrote then here:
At best Putin might be willing to be part of a deal which only SEEMS to be the solution and which looks good but which in practice would allow the Iranians to go ahead with their nuclear program.
Of course I might be wrong and he might be part of a deal that stops Iran but make no mistake, any deal will demand a very heavy price from the US, Europe and the West.
I cannot imagine what this price could be.
Putin will present America with the same options as he did in the case of Syria. Either put up or shut up.
Either go to war with an Iran backed by us or accept a lousy deal which just allows you to save face.
Such a deal of course will not be a real solution. It will just pretend to be one and sound good in theory.
But while all sides are pretending the Iranians will merrily go ahead with their program.
This is why America will not strike Iran and Obavez will grab any deal that allows him to save face.
Seeing that Obavez is so pathetically weak that he will not make good on his promise to stop Iran, what they [ the Iranians] mean is that they will go ahead anyway and embarass and expose him utterly.
He can spare himself this embarassment by easening or ending the sanctions in exchange for a deal that will really look good on the outside but will allow them to pursue their nuclear program either in secret or in such a way that their program can be redefined and spun to be only peaceful.
The US will make an appeasement deal with Iran or it will come finally to its senses and give the green light to an Israeli strike which I have very big difficulties to believe.
In the many following posts I wrote I made consistently the case that there could only be two outcomes: Either no deal or a bad dea with Iran:
More than a year ago in April 2014 I made the case that the likelyhood of a bad Iran deal has increased.
So, why was I able to accurately predict that a bad Iran deal was coming?
Am I biblical prophet? NO!
Do I have psychic powers? NO!
Am I genius on the order of Einstein? NO!
Have I access to some special intelligence sources? NO!
All I did was an analysis based on history, the world view of the actors, their past and current behaviour at the time of my writing and an overview of geopolitics.
That’s not rocket science. All you have to do is to apply logic, common sense and the scientific method. Most imtortantly, I did not base my judgement on what the actors said but what they DID.
Words can lie, actions do’nt.
So, the real question is not how I could predict the outcome.
The real question is, how anyone could come to any different conclusion.
That’s what boggles my mind.
I understand why sycophants like Thomas Friedman are consistently spreading phantasies but I don’t understand how intelligent, educated people who are professional analysts and who are getting a ton of money for their services can be surprised.
All I can do is, speculate. I believe that people working for certain think tanks, media and institutions and having a certain educational background tend to somehow think the same way.
Maybe some of them came to the same conclusions as I did but they they dismissed them because they were too afraid to stare reality in the face. That may be especially true for Israeli or Jewish persons for whom the reality was too horrible because for them more than for others such an outcome would be particularly disastrous.
One guiding principle of my analysis was and still is the assumption that Obavez is capable of doing anything he gets away with. Maybe it’s here were some may have thought: “No, he can’t do THAT. He can’t ignore congress and the rule of law. etc, etc”.
Each passing day Obavez is doing more and more abominable and traitorous things.
Each passing day he is getting away with it. The most recent traitorous action just happened today.
Obavez had the UN security council vote on the Iran deal before congress had any chance to review it and vote on it. This violated his agreement with congress. An agreement that was so weak that it gave him all the advantage by requiring effectively just one third of the votes to pass his deal with Iran. Practically, Obavez gave today a big middle finger to congress.
That, again, proves my assumption of Obavez’ pattern of behaviour.
It’s time to see reality as it is. It’s ugly and it has to stop.