The Deal Matrix

As the nuclear negations with Iran are going on, let us consider the possible outcomes.
The table shows which outcome the major parties would agree upon and whether they have the capability to enforce the outcome of the negotiations.
A ‘+’ means that the other negotiating parties cannot override the ‘vote’ which means there must be an unanimous vote.
A ‘-‘ means that a particular party can in no way force the others to respect their ‘vote’.
A ‘?’ means that is not clear whether a particular party can force the others to respect their ‘vote’.

  Israel Iran/Russia USA France
Good Deal Yes- No+ Yes+ Yes+
Bad Deal No- Yes+ Yes+ No+
No Deal, no more talks Yes- No+ No? Yes?
No Deal, continued talks No- Yes+ Yes? No?

Since Israel is not involved in the negotiations it has no voting power whatsoever.
Israel would accept a good deal or no deal, with the negotiations declared a failure and with no more talks.
An end to the negotiations with not deal would give legitimacy to an Israeli strike while an endless continuation of the talks without results would complicate things further and would give Iran additional time to advance their nuclear program.
The US under Obavez will avoid a fruitless end of the negotiations like the plague because then it would have to use the military option or add another broken promise to Obavez’ record and destroy US credibility and prestige.
That is why the US will keep the negotiations alive at all costs if necessary.
For the Iranians only a bad deal (from our point of view) or endless talks are acceptable.
Endless talks would hurt their economy because of the sanctions but it would make it more difficult for Israel to attack them while they negotiate.
They could live with an end of the negotiations but the sanctions would keep hurting their economy, that’s why they’ll try to avoid ´such an outcome.
In contrast to the Iranians the P5+1 has to agree unanimous to a deal.
Even if we assume that France would completely represent Israel’s position it is not clear whether they can force the others to end the talks or if the US can force the others to continue the talks  
From my point of view it is most likely that if no deal can be reached the talks will continue indefinitely.
What is Netanyahu waiting for? I can’t understand.
There is no way that the talks will result in a deal that is acceptable for Israel.
And it is very unlikely that the talks will end in failure if no deal can be reached because Iran and the US will keep the talks going.
It is rather more likely that the US will decouple the nuclear issue from the rapprochement (read appeasement) that it wants.
They could start separate independent negotiations while keeping the P5+1 track alive as long as necessary.
The nuclear issue could be declared an issue that has to be resolved independent of rapprochement.
Why is Bibi waiting?
Either he has a BIG ace up the sleeve or he has totally screwed up.
And by big ace I don’t mean some military wonders but a diplomatic ace because by now we can be pretty confident that the IDF can do the job.
It’s the polticial and diplomatic environment that causes all the problems. That’s where I see Bibi’s failure.
Something like the French surprise is the kind of thing we need now.
I believe that Israel will act militarily if there is no other choice but absent this big diplomatic/political ace the costs of doing so will be tremendously high.

2 thoughts on “The Deal Matrix

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