Recent events and, more important, recent statements give me the strange feeling that something is brewing.
That something, I have to stress,is not necessarily an Israeli strike.
It might as well be a big breakthrough in the US/Iran love story, (maybe the announcement of the engagement or the wedding?), if we keep this picture of two lovers who up to now had to meet in secret (Greetings to Luis who came up with this picture).
We had Bibi announcing that ‘Iran can enrich uranium from 3.5% to 90% in weeks’.
We had Debka telling us that Khamenei is in seclusion for three weeks and had not be seen in public since Oct. 5.
In an IOL-article titled “Israel will not bow to nuclear threat” the author tells us:
“It is unlikely that the negotiations with Iran will stop Netanyahu from ordering a strike if he concludes diplomacy has failed in providing security.
To the contrary, if there is one likely scenario that would push Israel to act, it would be the prospect of an imminent deal with Iran that would isolate Israel while not addressing the threat it sees emanating from Tehran.”
We had an ex-IAEA official’s warning that Iran is already past point of no return.
All this negative messages and the Israeli insistence on the comlete dismantlement of Iranian enrichment led the US to react, making clear that nothing will stop its current course, by having Kerry state: “I suggest that the idea that the United States of America as a responsible nation to all human kind would not explore that possibility would be the height of irresponsibility and dangerous in itself and we will not succumb to those fear tactics and forces that suggest otherwise.”
This was of course a thinly veiled message for Netanyahu.
The message is uncacceptable for Israel because it says that the US will continue negotiating with Iran even if the ultimate outcome will be unacceptable for Israel and, worse, the negatiations will drag on for quite some time and may even reach no deal at all.
And what then? In all likelyhood it will too late for Israel to act at that point in time and with Obavez unwilling to act there will be nothing to stop Iran.
This was reflected in Netanyhu’s welcome speech for the Nigerian President when he said about zhe negotiations: “Well, I am sure that for the Iranians they were useful and constructive, because they just win time to continue their enrichment program to create fissile material for nuclear weapons.”
That is why understandably the US is worried about an Israeli strike and that is why after the recent talk between Netanyahu and Obavez we had the White House calling in Jewish leaders for urgent Iran briefing.
Next we had the JPost telling us “IDF to host foreign air forces in major military drill next month” and the participants were not to be disclosed untill the drill begins.
We had the Algemeiner telling us “Israeli Air Force Re-Organization Aims for Expanded Capacity to Hit 10x as Many Targets”.
Excuse me, are they kiddng?
No military that is ready to engage in a certain big operation at any moment would announce to its enemies that they AIM for a certain capability.
You can safely assume that they HAVE ALREADY that capability and that this was a message to Hizbollah/Iran that the IAF, because of this capability, is fully capable of handling Iran and Hizbollah simultaniously and that they better behave or else Hizbollah will be pulverized without the IDF having to go in with ground troops.
This was a signal that the Hizbollah threat will in no way prevent an Iran operation.
Then we have the JPost telling us “White House urges Jewish leaders not to lobby for new Iran sanctions”.
We are hearing from the Times of Israel “Obama administration steps up top-level push to delay additional sanctions legislation set to go through Senate”.
The appeasement train goes full steam ahead and cannot be stopped.
And now we have trend.az telling us “Iran’s Basij forces to hold massive 10-step military drills”.
The more interesting details are:
“Iran’s Basij forces will tomorrow begin massive “Beytul Mugeddes” military drills in the country, deputy Basij commander, Colonel Nosratollah Saif said, IRNA news agency reported.
He said the exercises will be held in 10 steps, with 2-3 specific exercises executed each day, adding that the drills will be held in 5 provinces of Iran.
Saif added that “Asura”, “Kovser”, “Al-Zahra” and “Beytul Mugeddes” battalions will be participating in the drills.
Previously, Iran held the “Beytul Mugeddes” exercises in January 2013.”
To better understand the potential meaning of this it is necessary to remind us that the Basij are not forces designed to defend against external threats but that they are the thugs who are used to crush internal opposition and to protect the regime internally.
Let’s see. We have the IAF drills and the next Iran talks planned for November.
And while Khamenei is still in seclusion a major Iranian drill will not be conducted in Jan. but also in November.
Don’t know but I have the strange feeling that something is brewing.