We have conflicting assessments of the current situation.
While John Kerry sees the “Diplomatic window cracking open” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi declares “Shipping out the [enriched] material is a red line for Iran,”.
So what’s there to negotiate?
In spite of the American reassurances that the US will negotiate with ‘eyes open’ and ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ such assurances are utterly meaningless because the US so far have failed to give us a convincing answer what they will do if negotiations fail.
They have not given us a clear alternative other then lukewarm, wishy washy and ambigous talk about military options which are not talked about anymore anyway because one suspects strongly that they never were seriously considered.
And so, absent other alternatives, the US will have to accept any deal, even a bad one.
It boils down to this: Either have a credible alternative or spare us the whole circus.
Because Iran will not agree to any deal that satisfies the demands of the West, much less that of Israel.
Because in the end the West will have to do precisely that: accept a bad deal.
Of course they can always declare that no deal could be reached and go on to increase the sanctions because military action is out of the question.
The winners in this game can only be the Iranians because they have gained more months or even a half year or a year time during which they advanced their nuclear program full speed.
If Israel waits for this game to play out they will be clearly the losers. I don’t believe that they can wait that long. They shouldn’t wait this long. It’s too dangerous.
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