We have conflicting assessments of the current situation.
While John Kerry sees the “Diplomatic window cracking open” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi declares “Shipping out the [enriched] material is a red line for Iran,”.
So what’s there to negotiate?
In spite of the American reassurances that the US will negotiate with ‘eyes open’ and ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ such assurances are utterly meaningless because the US so far have failed to give us a convincing answer what they will do if negotiations fail.
They have not given us a clear alternative other then lukewarm, wishy washy and ambigous talk about military options which are not talked about anymore anyway because one suspects strongly that they never were seriously considered.
And so, absent other alternatives, the US will have to accept any deal, even a bad one.
It boils down to this: Either have a credible alternative or spare us the whole circus.
Because Iran will not agree to any deal that satisfies the demands of the West, much less that of Israel.
Because in the end the West will have to do precisely that: accept a bad deal.
Of course they can always declare that no deal could be reached and go on to increase the sanctions because military action is out of the question.
The winners in this game can only be the Iranians because they have gained more months or even a half year or a year time during which they advanced their nuclear program full speed.
If Israel waits for this game to play out they will be clearly the losers. I don’t believe that they can wait that long. They shouldn’t wait this long. It’s too dangerous.
Trend: Kerry on Iran: Diplomatic window cracking open
UPI: Iran: Removing nuclear material is ‘red line’
3 thoughts on “Which reality is real?”
1. He accepts the loss and quits the game.
2. He cheats.
3. He changes the rules of the game.
4. He pulls out his gun.
2. Possible but very difficult.
3. Much more difficult. The other guys who are on the verge of winning won’t be amused.
It always has been the 4th option. The good old western movies taught us that.
Interesting situation. Lets take a closer look at it, with your permission.
1.The Iranians are euphoric, all the possible good cards are in their deck.
2.The USA is in its weakest international position ever, and the interior politics aren’t look too brilliant, either.
3.Europe is eager to close the Iranian deal.
4.0bama is eager to close the Iranian deal.
5.The Iranians are smiling.
6.The Israelis are in one of their ”bad international positions” only this time is worse.
And now, what such a cowboy should do when all the odds are against him and the poker game seems to be lost? Please, find the answer to this simple question and you will know what the Israelis will do.
Wishing all the readers here a very nice morning, from Israel, Luis.