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Putin, America and the Grand Bargain

September 18, 2013

First of all it is important to remember that the US has a vital interest to prevent the Iranian regime from getting nukes.
But with the current traitors leading the US, they won’t do anything other than sanctions and diplomacy to prevent Iran from getting nukes.
As I said long ago, they will settle for containment.

I don’t believe in all this talk about Russia being involved in a deal that will prevent Iran from getting nukes.
Those who believe it, don’t understand Putin’s ambitions.
Putin wants to restore Russia to its former glory and greatness with himself on top as the powerful leader.
Being a KGB-agent since 1975 for twenty years he thinks in cold war terms und uses and perfects those methods he learned during his time at KGB while he adapted himself to the post cold war world.
He controls the biggest energy producer Gazprom and the most important media directly and the other oligarchs indirectly.
Because in Putin’s Russia there is no rule of law he can throw them into jail anytime he wants (as he has done repeatedly with various oligarchs) they are allowed to make their money but otherwise they have to dance to his tune.
He wants power for Russia and for himself. That is his motivation.
After the humiliating years of the Jelzin era, when Russia became the laughing stock of the world, he presented himself to the Russians as a strong leader by waging a ruthless, brutal war in Chechnya.
He restored Russias former role by opposing the US werever possible and by arming and supporting the enemies of the US.
This is the basis of his power and this is why many Russians love him.

The Syria deal was a big win for him because it exposed Obavez (the American president who because of his style of government and demagoguery resembles more Hugo Chavez than a real US-President) for the weakling that he is and makes him and Russia looking strong.
This deal increased his and Russia’s prestige tremendously.
Moreover it allowed Assad to stay in power thus ensuring the Russian presence in Syria.
This did a tremendous damage to US credibility and trust in the US.
In the worst case (if the deal works) Assad has to give away his chemical toys which he doesn’t need anyway to stay in power.
These toys were primarily used as a threat to Israel.

The story is different with Iran. Russia needs the Iranians for these reasons:
They are a direct threat to America.
They share their aim of driving America out of the region.
By driving America out of the region Putin wants to increase Russian influence and if possible take indirect control of the resources.
Whether they succeed in driving out America or not one thing is for shure, a nuclear Iran will force the US to spend huge amounts of money in order to contain Iran. The missile defense needed for this purpose is only one component.
This is money that the Russians will not have to spend for their defence budged to keep the balance with the US.
There is no possible way that Putin will make a deal in which he does not gain.
What does he gain by stopping the Iranians from getting nukes? Nothing.
There is the argument that Russia is not interested in nukes floating around Europe (greetings to John).
This is a valid argument but it does not take several things into account.
For the Iranians the enemies are the US (the big satan), Israel (the little satan), Europe and the rest of the western world, then all the other ‘infidels’ like Russia.
It would be stupid for the Iranians to use nukes against Russia before finishing off their biggest enemies, the US and Israel.
The moment one nuke goes off in Russia, Iran will be wiped off the map and they will never be able to fulfil their beloved dream.
Unlike European countries or Israel, Russia is a huge landmass and can absorb some nuclear strikes without being entirely destroyed.
The Iranians simply will never have the nuclear arsenal of the US.
That is why Putin can take such a gamble.
It is also entirely plausible that he would make a deal with Iran not to give these nukes to terrorists who would use them against Russia.
As for giving nukes to terrorists in order to nuke western European countries, I’m not sure that Putin would be too concerned about it.
I don’t think that he would be that much troubled if London or Paris would be nuked.
Anything that weakens Russia’s adversaries strengthens Russia.
Also he wouldn’t mind if the Iranians nuke America or Israel. What better way to get rid of all the competition without having to lift a finger.
A severely crippled US, an annihilated Israel, an annihilated Iran and Russia being untouched.
The constant threat of a nuclear Iran, even if they never use them benefits Putin and Russia.
Another strong indication that Russia is not interested in preventing a nuclear Iran is the fact that they prevented and obstructed any serious effort by others to stop Iran while supporting Iran’s nuclear program and while helping the Iranian military to defend their nuclear program.
How stupid would it be for the Russians to allow Iran to go this far and then stop them? Because the only thing that Russia could do to stop the Iranians at this point is that they themselves would attack them militarily. Even now the Russians support the Iranian program.
There might be some people who might think that my assessment of Putin is too cynical and too monstrous.
But consider this: Putin had no problem with Assad massacering his population even before the opposition was dominated by the fanatic islamists and terrorists.
Consider also that the event that brought Putin to power, the second war in Chechnya, was triggered by a series of explosions of appartment buildings which killed 300 people and in which FSB-agents (FSB is the successor of KGB) were involved.
Consider also the war which boosted Putin’s popularity. It was described by independent observers as one of the most brutal wars after WW2.
At best Putin might be willing to be part of a deal which only SEEMS to be the solution and which looks good but which in practice would allow the Iranians to go ahead with their nuclear program.
Of course I might be wrong and he might be part of a deal that stops Iran but make no mistake, any deal will demand a very heavy price from the US, Europe and the West.
I cannot imagine what this price could be.

This brings us back to America’s role in this game.
Putin will present America with the same options as he did in the case of Syria. Either put up or shut up.
Either go to war with an Iran backed by us or accept a lousy deal which just allows you to save face.
Such a deal of course will not be a real solution. It will just pretend to be one and sound good in theory.
But while all sides are pretending the Iranians will merrily go ahead with their program.
While the support amongst the US-population for an US-strike against Iran is much higher than the support for a Syria strike and while the Iranian or the Russian military is no match for America’s military I have very serious doubts that the US will strike Iran.
In fact, I consider the likelyhood of America attacking Iran to be almost zero.
Obavez simply doesn’t have the guts to order a military strike. It would go against everything he believes or pretents to believe and it would also go against the very reason he was elected when he presented himself as the antithesis of Bush.
There are geostrategists in the Democratic Party like Zbigniew Brzinsky and Robert Litwak who have been arguing for containment vis a vis Iran for a long time.
So far Obavez did not always heed their advice as in the case of Syria when he did not follow Brzinsky’s suggestions but he would not only have them against him but the radical anti-war people, radical progressives and  other leftists in the Democratic Party.
Will Obavez have the guts to go against his core base and many in the Democratic Party? Don’t think so.
If it comes to that point I expect to hear and see the usual horror scenarios warning about WW3, the apocalypse and also I expect to hear all the usual arguments that America is bankrupt and can’t afford another war which is partly true because of Obavez’ desastrous economics and because the Democrats are increasing spending for welfare and other wasteful programs at the expense of the defence budget.
This is why America will not strike Iran and Obavez will grab any deal that allows him to save face.

At this moment the Iranians are trying to create the impression that they are willing to strike a deal and to make concessions but it is clear that they won’t give up their nuclear ambitions.
All they are looking for is an easening of the sanctions in order to boost their economy without giving anything of real substance. Being the master negotiators and master manipulators that they are they offering Obavez a deal.
As they have indicated recently there is only limited time for a deal. Well, what do they mean by that?
It is clear that the only thing that can stop them from getting nukes is military force.
Seeing that Obavez is so pathetically weak that he will not make good on his promise to stop Iran, what they mean is that they will go ahead anyway and embarass and expose him utterly.
He can spare himself this embarassment by easening or ending the sanctions in exchange for a deal that will really look good on the outside but will allow them to pursue their nuclear program either in secret or in such a way that their program can be redefined and spun to be only peaceful.
So far the Iranians have not openly crossed the point of no return.
This is only owed to the fact that there is another player who is existentially threatened by them and who is the only player who is considered to be serious about a military strike.
For this reason they are amassing centrifuges like crazy without using them at this point in time carefully not to cross Israel’s red line.
If the reports from IAEA and ISIS can be believed, only 700 of 3700 centrifuges installed in Fordow are operating since the installation was completed at the beginning of 2013.
The same is true for the many of the new advanced centrifuges at Natanz.
The objective is clear. The objective is to have so many centrifuges and other options like the Arrak reactor that when they decide to cross the Rubicon they could to this in such a short time that there will be not enough time for Israel to recognize it and prevent it by military force.

Israel our last player in this chess game is in great danger now because the circumstances are not favourable to an Israeli strike, because as it seems the US is falling for the Iranian bait and the world gets a false picture of a real chance to end the nuclear crisis and also because the US is, it seems, still opposed to an Israeli strike.
The US will make an appeasement deal with Iran or it will come finally to its senses and give the green light to an Israeli strike which I have very big difficulties to believe.
So, what can Israel do to change the game
The Iranians have always done their enrichment work and military experiments in secret. The existence of both Natanz and Fordow were only admitted by the Iranians when their existence was revealed by the intelligence services or dissidents.
I believe that there are more such secrets sites. The ISIS institute hinted at the existence of a possible secret laser enrichment site.
I also believe that Israel has good intelligence on the Iranian program because its existence depends on it. There are also plausible reports about Israeli human intelligence operating in Iran.
This leads me to believe that Israel knows about such secrets sites.
If that is indeed the case all Israel has to do is expose these sites. This would create several things. It would end the charade that is currently going on and create a strong sense of urgency. The Iranians would be totally exposed as liars who cannot be trusted. It would show that they are not serious. It would show that there is no point for the US or anyone negotiating with them. Most importantly it would show that they have crossed the rubicon already and that there is no more time left to waste. Such a move would increase diplomatic support and justification for an Israeli strike and also public support in the US and around the world.
After having taking back the initiative in the public arena Israel should immediately follow up with a military strike.

Finally I want to share with the readers an excerpt of an article which was pulished at the web site of the “John Bachelor Show” on February 2013.
At this point in time it sounded really far fetched but now it becomes increasingly realistic, almost prophetic.

Grand Bargain Tehran, the Remake

http://johnbatchelorshow.com/blog/2013/02/grand-bargain-tehran-remake

“What is New.

Am told that the Obama administration is eager and resolute to conclude a Grand Bargain with the Supreme Leader that will declare the fiction that Iran’s nuclear weapons program is non-military. Am told that the VPOTUS Biden or his close advisers communicated with Supreme Leader speakers during the recent security conference in Germany, and am told that new SecState Kerry aims to meet with Supreme Leader cut-outs in Kazakhstan at the end of February.  In all, the Obama administration has put in place the apparatus the deal and set up a visit by POTUS to Tehran in the direct imitation of Richard Nixon’s visit to Beijing.  The sidebar issues for the Grand Bargain include lifting the sanctions and recognizing Iran as the regional hegemon of the Gulf.  Also, I am told that the US will acknowledge that Iran’s nuclear scientists have been attacked by a “Third Country” — aka Israel.  The timeline for this global reordering of battle lines includes waiting until after the June 2013 presidential election in Iran, when, I am, told, the Supreme Leader will endorse and celebrate the election of former Foreign Minister Velayati as the new president.  All this maneuvering proceeds from the meeting last Fall between Velayati and White House special agent Valerie Jarrett in Doha to discuss the diplomatic spectacular this year.”

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8 Responses to “Putin, America and the Grand Bargain”

  1. Luis Says:

    Israel will not attack any time soon.
    Obama will strike ( a deal ) with Iran.
    The russians, Iran, Assad and Obama will be all very pleased.
    The rebels and the Al Qaeda brigades will continue to fight Assad, the russians and the iranians in Syria.

    The global Sunni Al Qaeda is very active lately. Soon, more terror(military) acts will be soon executed by those islamists and that is what will break the dance party between the russians, Obama and Iran.

  2. Luis Says:

    Good evening, my friend. I took the privilege to enter here and to give you an advice for good reasons, I hope. I sincerely advice you to stop replying to ”John Prophet” attacks and comments. I have serious reasons to suspect that his motives are not so ”clean”. From his starting comments before, lets say, a half an year ago, like ”it is written” thing, if you remember, suddenly he/they changed the tone and the style. I also attacked him and Joseph react strangely. I don’t read his comments anymore. Practically, he is on ”ignore” from my point of view. You, of course, you’ll do what you think its best in your interest.

    And, I wish you great luck with this site. I look into it once in a day, in this stage.
    Luis.

    • artaxes Says:

      Thanks Luis.
      Thank you for your advice which comes from a real friend.
      I’ll try to stay away from him because I don’t want to be dragged into the mud which happened exactly today (before I read your comment).
      Which shows me the wisdom of your words.
      I’m honored to have you as a guest and I hope you won’t be disappointed if I don’t post every day.
      I’m sure you agree with me that I shouldn’t post for the sake of posting but only when I have to say something meaningful.
      Anything else would be a disservice to you as well as to myself.
      Anyway, I thank you for your good wishes and I’m looking forward to meet you either here or on JWs site.

      • Luis Says:

        I entirely agree with you regarding the posting only when something relevant is ready to be told.
        I myself lately tried to restrain from reacting to different events, because I have a feeling that we are not on solid ground here, with Obama sudden change in plans in front of the world tv cameras, with Putin saving the US president face, with Assad ”We’ll Teach You Chemistry Really Fast” flirting with the american media, with the Uranian ”Prince Charming” President smiling shinny in Obama’s direction and the list can go on.
        With such a circus installing its tent in our region, one can only stop for a moment and rest for awhile.

      • artaxes Says:

        Yes we are living indeed in weird times.
        My feeling is that we are going to have “Peace in our time”.
        That is, that obavez and the others (the Europeans) want a deal at any price.
        Now as then the worlds powers wanted to avoid war at any cost.
        As for obavez I believe that he is willing to accept a lousy, phony deal which appears to be good and which he can present to the world as a solution.
        This will achieve two things:
        It will free him from his promise to prevent a nuclear Iran.
        You see, even if they are continuing in secret or now of sudden ‘peacefully’ he can pretend that the problem is solved.
        No war. No nuclear Iran. Diplomatic success. What an achievement. Really good stuff for the next election campaign and for his place in history.
        Everyone will pretend that the deal is working while some will know that it doesn’t work and some will not want to know.
        Everyone will be happy. Of course this is treason by obavez but what does he care.
        And it doesn’t matter what Bibi is going to tell at the UN.
        Everyone will be happy to believe the Iranians because they want to believe them.
        And so the real danger is that, intended or not, Israel will be totally isolated when it is forced to attack because their is no more time to wait.
        Bibi has to do something dramatic, as I said in the post, to end this charade. That is the only way I see how he can put Israel on the advantage again.

  3. Norm Says:

    Great post. Good luck AR!


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